Rich's Ramblings

by Rich Schinnell

This month I am going to try to give you some of my predictions. Each year, at different times, I have gone through this phase, very similar to the waxing and waning of the moon. As I sit at my computer in the early morning, I get some of these strange urges that usually pass, but this morning I am alive with ideas . . . so bear with me. <G> [the <G> means a big grin to those who are not BBS addicts]

One thing I predicted in the past, and also wished for, was the combination of a good quality copier, fax machine, and laser printer all wrapped up in one, for a reasonable price. Now I have seen advertisements on TV for just that. But I did not see what the product listed for. Bet it is over a grand. Just goes to show you how memory seems to go as you get older; I now forget the manufacturer. Anyone see those ads and remember?

I predict that there will be more .0 versions of DOS and other applications software that will have to be revised to .1 or .2 versions. Microsoft has named their new Windows product Windows 95. I bet that they will be sorry. I guess that means that instead of a new version every 18 months, they will be bringing out a new version each year. Wonder what Windows 2000 will be like? Probably like Wordstar 2000. <G>

OS/2 version 3.0 will probably be upgraded to 3.1 about three months after its introduction. I see where the IBM ers and their followers are already telling us that we should not be using shareware for our SLIP (Serial Line Interface Protocol) Internet connection, and we should instead wait for their smooth PPP (Point to Point Protocol) interface to the Internet. Sure, wait and see! I have not gotten any previews of their Internet connection software, but I venture that by the time you read this, IBM will, at COMDEX (COMputer Dealers EXposition) give the user group leaders in Las Vegas a preview. I just can't wait. If IBM would only talk to real people instead of their evangelists. I am not anti-IBM or anti-OS/2, but something tells me that IBM is listening to the likes of their TEAM OS/2 who is already sold on how wonderful OS/2 is, and that it will solve all of our problems by working so great. To be fair, Microsoft is in the same boat with their Windows 95. Both companies of course want us to believe that we really need their new software, and the world will pass each of us by if we don't upgrade to their latest versions. I have an old Navy phrase for that, but this is a family magazine, and I must maintain a semblance of propriety. I will probably get hung in effigy or flamed on the Internet or MIX (CPCUG's Members Information eXchange BBS) for my views, but what the heck. I have never been accused of keeping quiet when I had an opinion. <G>

I see in our future much easier access to the Internet. Soon, you will be able to have a special box on your TV with a keyboard where you will be able to send and receive messages. Look up recipes and browse interesting newsgroups. All through your cable connection. This capability is almost here, and it should be a real easy solution to the delaying of the US Mail. I would think that the USPS would get involved in this by providing local servers at their POs that would allow you to route your mail through them. Maybe this way, they could get back in the mainstream. Pictures of your grandchildren and dogs along with your letters could be sent around the country to your friends and relatives quite reasonably. A small monthly or per letter charge would be the key to profitability for the USPS. The only thing a household would require would be the special box and a keyboard. Cable TV would be the medium, so a home computer would not be required. Very similar to the X-Windows in Unix. Your keyboard and screen would use the CPU power of the local server at the USPO. I see this as a way for the average household to get into computers with a minimum of cost. If Postmaster Runyan is reading this, think about it. (We have several members who work in the USPS headquarters.) There would be a feature that will, for an additional fee, print out your letter locally or at your local post office in a secure location, and be placed in your post office box or be delivered to your home the next day (dream on Rich). So that makes four things you will need: Keyboard, special box, cheap printer and cable TV connections.

This extra hardware could be rented for a real small fee. And the USPS could make money by charging on a per message/page/size basis. FAX machines would be on the decline, as you would be able to send documents over the line quite easily. If you wanted to, you could do all this from a local post office in little cubicles; that's for people who want their mail at post office boxes. Mail could be made private by encryption and the public key encryption method. This should allay the fears of the privacy crowd. One neat thing about having this all through your TV is that you could get a screen print out of those fantastic automobile disclaimers and actually get to read them. Ever try to read the small print on the screen during a car ad? No one who has not taken a speed reading course can even think about reading the small print during the three seconds it is on the screen. Also, you can capture the 1-800 number you wanted to remember but did not have a pencil in hand. <G>

I predict the Pentium will be dead in a year or so. <G> A couple of months ago, I got into a discussion with a member who disagreed with one of the advertisements in the Monitor regarding the claims that the 386 and 486 were dead. Now I want to be the first to predict the demise of the Pentium. So there . . . the heptium or Septium will be the rage, and anyone without the latest chip will be decades behind. I also predict the end of hard disks as we know them. With chips getting smaller and memory coming down in price, I think that you will be able to buy a small plug-in card for your machine with a gigabyte of random access non-volatile storage on it. As I write this, I see 20-100MB Flash memory cards available. But at a price. This will come down to where they are going to be cheaper than physical hard disks. Heck, I remember when I paid over $850.00 for a 30MB hard disk, not too many years ago. . . .

The three areas in computers where the choke points are located: The hard disk access times are only in the millisecond area. About 8-10 Milliseconds or .008 seconds is about the fastest hard disk can do. In relation to the memory speed of .000000070 seconds, 70 nano second memory is several thousand times faster. Video speed to write the screen is also very slow. Of course the slowest part of computers is the nut behind the wheel <G>. I predict also that voice recognition and control of PCs will be more commonplace than keyboards. Touch screens are too messy and require too much Windex to let you read the screen. Especially after you have touched the screen a few times while eating a peanut butter and jelly sandwich. With the advent of the new non-volatile storage, hard disks will be a thing of the past. Sorry, Seagate and Western Digital, and the rest of you can dump your stock. <G>

I also see the end of PCMCIA cards which are getting to be almost more trouble than they are worth. I have had to help more people configure their laptops with all those damned CONFIG.SYS device drivers. Each of these require device drivers to work, and this leaves very little memory free. Upper memory is very limited for those with laptops and the PCMCIA cards; I hope that someone comes out with a swiss army knife device driver. You will be loved by people with the laptops that have these cards. Anyway, I predict their demise also. With more and more capabilities being built into the motherboards and processor chips, Modems, Ethernet cards, and SCSI adapters will all come on the motherboard with a connection out the back of the computer to plug in a universal adapter.

So there! I went out on a limb again. . . .

Rich Schinnell is retired from the U.S. Navy and from Vitro Corporation, and now can spend his time, or more of it, playing with his toys. He is the President of CPCUG and really enjoys helping others. He has run the CPCUG Software Library BBS for over 12 years. Rich can be reached on the Internet at schinnel@cpcug.org, or on the Members Information eXchange BBS,

or as a last resort by phone in the evenings at (301) 949-9292.

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